2024 Women's Olympiad Preview

The event that brings the whole chess world together is here! This Wednesday, the 45th Chess Olympiad begins in Budapest, a historic location for women’s chess. Budapest of course is the hometown of Susan, Sofia, and Judit Polgar. Although the three of them are scattered across the globe today (Judit is the only one still in Budapest), the Polgars will reunite for this historic Olympiad in the city where they developed their talent.

Those of you under the impression that the Polgar sisters never competed in any women’s tournaments may be surprised to find out that all three Polgars represented Hungary in the Women’s Olympiad in 1988 and 1990, leading Hungary to gold both times. This was one of the biggest successes of their young careers because it was the first time ever the Soviet Union (led mainly by Georgia) played the Women’s Olympiad and didn’t win, marking the end of their 30+ year dominance over women’s chess.

Sofia Polgar, Ildikó Mádl, Judit Polgar, and Susan Polgar receiving the gold medals for Hungary at the 1988 Olympiad. Credit: via Susan Polgar.

This Olympiad is unlikely to see a similar end of an era because out of the two countries who have dominated the Olympiad since the Polgars’ triumph, China is sending their B team and Russia has to sit this one out as their country continues to invade Ukraine. Although we won’t see the end of an era, we may see the start of a new one. The big question there being: Will India step up and claim their place at the top of women’s chess with their biggest rivals not here?

Player drought

There’s no sugar-coating it. This Olympiad will be the weakest one since 1998, not because the top players got worse but because the top players aren’t here. The only FIDE Top 10 player at the Olympiad will be world No. 9 Nana Dzagnidze.

The only players we know the reason for their absence are the two Russian players. China isn’t sending the World Champion Ju Wenjun, World Championship challenger Tan Zhongyi, or the previous World Championship challenger Lei Tingjie — who all made the personal choice not to attend. India’s top-rated player Humpy Koneru is missing. Ukraine are the defending Olympiad champions, but their top two players, the Muzychuk sisters, also declined to participate. All in all, that leaves just two players above 2500, the other being Harika, for the first time in 26 years.

Nana Dzagnidze wondering where is everyone??? Credit: Lennart Ootes / Confused Travolta meme.

But all those players missing creates opportunity for a new country to step up and be the best. Since 1992, just eight different countries have won medals. Only four countries (China, Russia, Georgia, Ukraine) have taken gold. Of the other four, only two (Poland and USA) have won multiple medals, while the last two (Hungary back in 1994, and India just recently in 2022) have just a lone medal. With only Georgia fielding their best team this time among the recent gold medallists, we could easily see a new gold medallist, or at least a first-time medallist.

Heat check

Who has been on fire heading into the Olympiad? There are some easy answers to that.

• (No. 1 seed) India boasts two of this year’s Player of the Year candidates in Vaishali and Divya Deshmukh, the world’s top junior, on Boards 2 and 3.
• (No. 10 seed) Kazakhstan has all four boards at their best. Board 1, Bibisara Assaubayeva, just finished runner-up in the Women’s Grand Prix leg. Board 2, Meruert Kamalidenova, just earned her 1st GM norm. Board 3, Xeniya Balabayeva, just earned her first two IM norms. Board 4, Alua Nurman, just earned her 2nd IM norm. Not to mention, Bibisara is the oldest player on the team at age 20, very reminiscent of the Polgars when their all-teenage team won in 1988.

Kazakhstan won their first-ever international medal, silver at the rapid 2023 Women’s World Team Championship, with the same team that they are sending to the Olympiad. Credit: Michal Walusza.

• (No. 3 seed) Poland’s Board 1, Alina Kashlinskaya, has only played two tournaments this year, but she won them both, including the Grand Prix leg just a few weeks ago. Aleksandra Maltsevskaya on Board 3 may also be peaking at the right time.

Whose form is in question?

• (No. 2 seed) Georgia’s Board 1 and Board 2, veterans Nana Dzagnidze and Lela Javakhishvili, both underperformed a bit in their home Grand Prix leg. Do they prefer playing away from home? They did win the rapid 2023 Women’s World Team Championship, but struggled at the more recent European Team Championship where they were the top seed by far, but only finished tenth.

Can Georgia’s veteran team, the only one with three GMs, medal for the third Olympiad in a row? Credit: Nana Dzagnidze.

• (No. 4 seed) China’s Board 1, Zhu Jiner, currently the world’s youngest GM among women, has looked strong lately. But China made the odd decision to keep the rest of their team at home playing local tournaments rather than have them travel abroad. Then again, whatever China does tends to work out for them.
• (No. 6 seed) Azerbaijan really shouldn’t be listed here. Boards 2, 3, and 4 have all had great years, with Board 2 Ulviyya Fataliyeva winning the European Championship and Board 3 Govhar Beydullayeva nearly making her final IM norm several times. So why are they listed here? At the last Olympiad, they had basically the same team rating and several players had amazing tournaments. Yet, that still wasn’t enough for a medal.

Rogue threats

• (No. 7 seed) The United States has the most balanced team with all four boards at basically the same rating. Curiously, they were also the most balanced team at the last Olympiad. That makes them a threat to anyone. India had the misfortune of finding that out the hard way when they suffered their only loss at the last Olympiad, costing them the gold in the final round.
• (No. 5 seed) Ukraine are playing for their country more than anyone. Even without the Muzychuk sisters, that makes them dangerous. Board 1 Yuliia Osmak has been Arjun-ing her way slowly up the rating list, not in opens, but in league play, which is extremely unusual.
• (No. 12 seed) Bulgaria are the reigning European team champions. They weren’t supposed to win that. (They weren’t even supposed to play that tournament originally, as they were still banned by the ECU.) They’re certainly not supposed to win here, but that hasn’t stopped them before. They have veteran GM Antoaneta Stefanova on Board 1 and World Cup runner-up Nurgyul Salimova on Board 2. Be warned.

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It wouldn’t be an Olympiad preview without a medal prediction. I’m going with India (gold), China (silver), and Kazakhstan (bronze).

It also wouldn’t be an Olympiad preview without a check on the hosts, who field three teams. For those who root root root for the home team, the one to watch is 17-year-old Zsóka Gaál, the top junior girl in Europe, who is on Board 1 for Hungary. She just made her 1st IM norm last month and is looking for another here.

As for prominent norm-seekers on other teams, Govhar Beydullayeva is looking to complete her IM title on Azerbaijan’s Board 3 and Lan Yao is looking for a 3rd IM norm on England’s Board 1.

The Olympiad starts with Round 1 on Wednesday at 3pm. Everyone from Judit to Bodhana will be there. You don’t want to miss it!

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